Company Update / Coal / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Reggie Parengkuan ;Ryan Winipta
- reported Rp4.5tr net profit in 1Q24 (-14% qoq/-15% yoy), slightly above consensus estimates (27%), but in-line with ours (25%).
- We think consensus has yet to fully pricing-in the robust volume from TTA as it exceeded guidance (1Q24 at 33% guidance).
- We maintain our FY24-26F estimates and maintain Hold at Rp27,500/sh.
1Q24 earnings declined on lower margins but above consensus
1Q24 earnings declined to Rp4.5tr (-14% qoq/-15% yoy),slightly above consensus estimates (27%), but in-line with ours (25%). 1Q24 NP was slightly above consensus estimates, as we think consensus has yet to fully price-in the robust volume from TTA as it exceeded guidance (1Q24 at 33% guidance). Pre-tax margin declined across the board, with coal mining pre-tax profit seeing the steepest decline (-48% qoq). Revenue improved by +5% qoq to Rp32.4tr as lower Pama revenue (-10% qoq) was offset by higher HE (+5% qoq), coal (+27% qoq), and gold mining segment (+95% qoq). Below operating line, income from associates improved to Rp267bn (+40% qoq/+49% yoy), attributed to higher income from Bhumi Jati Power.
Komatsu improvement offset Pama volume
Komatsu sales volume in 1Q24 came in-line with ours (28% IPS) at 1.1k units (+24% qoq/-37% yoy), albeit the qoq growth was primarily due to soft 4Q seasonality, though volume remained soft on a yearly basis on normalizing commodity price. Meanwhile, Pama total volume declined to 318 units in 1Q24 (-5% qoq; 24% IPS) on lower production (-5% qoq) and SR (-1% qoq) amid higher rainfall. Komatsu and Pama ASP declined to Rp3.9bn/unit (-2% qoq) and Rp42k/t (-5% qoq), driven by lower big machine sales & lower coal price (-6% qoq), respectively.
Solid mining segment volumes but TTA margin disappointed
TTA thermal/coking coal sales volume improved to 3.2/0.8Mt in 1Q24 (+27/+8% qoq, +40/+10% yoy) on improving logistical issue. Blended ASP improved to Rp2.1mn (+4% qoq) despite lower Newcastle/Coking coal price (-6/-7% qoq). However, pre-tax margin declined to 21% (from 46% in 4Q23), likely driven by higher SR. Gold sales volume grew +69% qoq to 49k oz in 1Q24, after completion of tailing facility construction in Dec23. In addition, ASP of US$2,380/oz (+16% qoq) came ahead of benchmark (Mar24: US$2,160/t) and our forecast (113% IPS).
Maintain Hold at unchanged SOTP -based TP of Rp27,500
We maintain our FY24-26F estimates for now, pending on further clarity from the earnings call. Maintain our Hold rating at unchanged SOTP -based TP of Rp27,500. is currently trading at 5.1x FY24F P/E (25% discount to 5yr avg), on par with and .
Sumber : IPS